Nankai Trough Megaquake: Japan Braces for Potential 300,000 Deaths

Catastrophic Nankai Trough Quake Looms

According to an NHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS report (link) and a government panel, Japan is preparing for a potential megaquake in the Nankai Trough that could result in nearly 300,000 deaths.

The trough, stretching along Japan’s Pacific Coast from Kyushu to Shizuoka, is overdue for a major seismic event, with an 80% chance of occurring within 30 years. The quake could reach the highest level on Japan’s seismic scale in 10 prefectures, triggering tsunamis with waves over 30 meters, causing most deaths. Up to 52,000 could die from secondary causes like untreated medical issues or stress. 

Japan Steps Up Worst-Case Quake Planning After 2011 Lessons

The government is focusing on worst-case scenarios after underestimating past quakes, like the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Measures include building evacuation towers and holding drills, but progress lags, partly because tsunami-affected areas were expanded and public behavior wasn’t fully accounted for. Foreigners and visitors face higher risks due to limited information and language barriers. Immediate evacuation could reduce tsunami deaths by 70%, and quake-proofing homes and securing furniture can further lower risks. Both government and public efforts are crucial for resilience.